Fed Lowers Rates, Leaves Door Open to Further Cuts

The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-2.25 percent during its July meeting, the first rate cut since the financial crisis, as inflation remains subdued amid heightened concerns about the economic outlook and ongoing trade tensions with China. The central bank also said it “will act as appropriate to sustain” growth but during the press conference Chairman Powell said he did not view the move as the start of a lengthy series of rate cuts.

FOMC Statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Although growth of household spending has picked up from earlier in the year, growth of business fixed investment has been soft. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. This action supports the Committee’s view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

The Committee will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account in August, two months earlier than previously indicated.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; and Randal K. Quarles. Voting against the action were Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate

United States GDP Growth Rate Second Quarter 2019

The US economy grew by an annualized 2.1 percent in the second quarter of 2019, beating market expectations of 1.8 percent and following a 3.1 percent expansion in the previous three-month period, the advance estimate showed. Household consumption and government spending increased at faster rates, while a slump in exports and a smaller inventory build made a negative contribution to growth. GDP Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.21 percent from 1947 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 16.70 percent in the first quarter of 1950 and a record low of -10 percent in the first quarter of 1958.

Positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (2.85 percentage points), federal government spending (0.51 percentage points), and state and local government spending (0.35 percentage points) were partly offset by negative contributions from private inventory investment (-0.86 percentage points), exports (-0.63 percentage points), nonresidential fixed investment (-0.08 percentage points) and residential fixed investment (-0.06 percentage points). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased, posting a negative contribution of 0.01 percentage points.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) jumped 4.3 percent in the second quarter, the most since the fourth quarter of 2017, mainly boosted by consumption of goods (8.3 percent vs 1.5 percent in Q1), in particular durable goods (12.9 percent vs 0.3 percent). Also, services consumption growth accelerated (2.5 percent vs 1 percent). Federal government spending climbed 7.9 percent (vs 2.2 percent in Q1) and state and local government spending rose 3.2 percent (vs 3.3 percent in Q1).

By contrast, exports plunged 5.2 percent in the second quarter, after a 4.1 percent increase in Q1, due to lower sales of both goods (-5 percent vs 4.6 percent) and services (-5.6 percent vs 3.3 percent). On the other hand, imports edged 0.1 percent higher led by purchases of goods (0.2 percent vs -2.8 percent).

Business investment declined for the first time in three years by 0.6 percent, compared to a 4.4 percent advance in the previous three-month period, dragged by a contraction in structures investment (-10.6 percent vs 4 percent), which includes oil and gas well drilling. Meanwhile, investment in intellectual property products continued to rise solidly (4.7 percent vs 10.8 percent), and that in equipment rebounded (0.7 percent vs -0.1 percent).

Residential investment shrank for the sixth straight period (-1.5 percent vs -1 percent), the first such instance since the financial crisis.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

Industrial Production in the United States Year over Year June 2019

Industrial Production in the United States increased 1.30 percent year-on-year in June of 2019, easing from an upwardly revised 2.1 percent gain in the prior month. Industrial Production in the United States averaged 3.73 percent from 1920 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 62 percent in July of 1933 and a record low of -33.70 percent in February of 1946.

United States Industrial Production

In the United States, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy. Manufacturing is the most important sector and accounts for 78 percent of total production. The biggest segments within Manufacturing are: Chemicals (12 percent of total production); food, drink and tobacco (11 percent); machinery (6 percent); fabricated metal products (6 percent); computer and electronic products (6 percent); and motor vehicles and parts (6 percent). Mining and quarrying account for 11 percent of production and utilities account for the remaining 11 percent. This page provides the latest reported value for – United States Industrial Production – plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Industrial Production – actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases – was last updated on July of 2019.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production

Inflation Year or Year June 2019

Core

Core consumer prices in the United States increased 2.10 percent in June of 2019 over the same month in the previous year. Core Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.62 percent from 1957 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 13.60 percent in June of 1980 and a record low of 0 percent in May of 1957.

Inflation Rate

The US annual inflation rate fell to 1.6 percent in June 2019 from 1.8 percent in the previous month, as food prices rose at a softer pace while energy cost continued to decline. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, edged up to 2.1 percent, beating forecast of 2 percent. On a monthly basis, the core index increased 0.3 percent, the most since January 2018. Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.26 percent from 1914 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921.

The US annual inflation rate fell to 1.6 percent in June 2019 from 1.8 percent in the previous month and in line with market expectations.

Energy prices plunged 3.4 percent, following a 0.5 percent fall in the previous month. Within energy commodities, gasoline cost declined 5.4 percent (vs -0.2 percent in May) and fuel oil went down 5.6 percent (vs -0.8 percent in May). Within energy services, electricity prices retreated 0.3 percent (vs -0.2 percent in May) and utility (piped) gas service cost dropped 2.1 percent (vs -2.6 percent in May). Declines were also seen in cost of apparel (-1.3 percent vs -3.1 percent) and medical care commodities (-1.5 percent vs -0.7 percent).

Food inflation eased to 1.9 percent in June from 2 percent in May, due in particular to food at home (0.9 percent vs 1.2 percent) while costs of food away from home rose at faster pace (3.1 percent vs 2.9 percent). Additional price increases were recorded for transportation services (0.9 percent vs 1.1 percent); medical care services (2.8 percent); shelter (3.5 percent vs 3.3 percent); new vehicles (0.6 percent vs 0.9 percent); and used cars and trucks (1.2 percent vs 0.3 percent).

The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, edged up to 2.1 percent in June from 2 percent in May, beating market consensus of 2 percent.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices gained 0.1 percent in June, the same pace as in May and below expectations of 0.2 percent. The food index was unchanged while the energy index fell 2.3 percent. Additional upward pressure came from shelter, used cars and trucks, and apparel, the indexes for household furnishings and operations, medical care, and motor vehicle insurance; while declines were seen in recreation, airline fares, and personal care. Core consumer prices increased 0.3 percent, the largest increase since January 2018 and also above forecasts of 0.2 percent.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-inflation-rate

US Job Growth Surges in June

Nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by 224 thousand in June 2019, following a downwardly revised 72 thousand rise in May and beating market expectations of 160 thousand. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing. Non Farm Payrolls in the United States averaged 125.70 Thousand from 1939 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 1118 Thousand in September of 1983 and a record low of -1959 Thousand in September of 1945.

Professional and business services added 51,000 jobs in June, following little employment change in May (+24,000). Employment growth in the industry has averaged 35,000 per month in the first half of 2019, compared with an average monthly gain of 47,000 in 2018.

Employment in health care increased by 35,000 over the month and by 403,000 over the past 12 months. In June, job growth occurred in ambulatory health care services (+19,000) and hospitals (+11,000).

Transportation and warehousing added 24,000 jobs over the month and 158,000 over the past 12 months. In June, job gains occurred among couriers and messengers (+7,000) and in air transportation (+3,000).

Construction employment continued to trend up in June (+21,000), in line with its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months.

Manufacturing employment edged up in June (+17,000), following 4 months of little change. So far this year, job growth in the industry has averaged 8,000 per month, compared with an average of 22,000 per month in 2018. In June, employment rose in computer and electronic products (+7,000) and in plastics and rubber products (+4,000).

Employment in other major industries, including mining, wholesale trade, retail trade, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government, showed little change over the month.

In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 6 cents to $27.90, following a 9-cent gain in May. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.1 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $23.43 in June.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 hours in June. In manufacturing, the average workweek edged up 0.1 hour to 40.7 hours, while overtime was unchanged at 3.4 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls held at 33.6 hours.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls

United States Exports

Exports from the US increased USD 4.2 billion from a month earlier, or 2.0 percent to USD 210.6 billion in May of 2019. Goods exports rose USD 3.9 billion to USD 140.8 billion, mainly due to capital goods (up USD 1.4 billion), namely civilian aircraft and telecommunications equipment; consumer goods (up USD 0.8 billion), particularly gem diamonds, jewelry and pharmaceutical preparations; soybeans (up USD 0.7 billion); other goods (up USD 0.6 billion) and automotive vehicles, parts, and engines (up USD 0.6 billion). Exports of services increased USD 0.3 billion to USD 69.8 billion, of which maintenance and repair services, travel (for all purposes including education) and transport all up USD 0.1 billion. Exports in the United States averaged 56278.95 USD Million from 1950 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 213341 USD Million in May of 2018 and a record low of 772 USD Million in March of 1950.

United States Exports

The United States is the world’s third biggest exporter, yet exports account only for 13 percent of GDP. Main exports are: capital goods (22 percent of total exports) and industrial supplies (22 percent). Others include: consumer goods (8 percent) and petroleum (7 percent). In 2018, exports of petroleum reached a record high of USD 172.4 billion. In 2018, main exports partners were: Canada (18 percent of total exports), Mexico (16 percent), China (7 percent), Japan (4.5 percent), the United Kingdom (4 percent) and Germany (3.5 percent). This page provides the latest reported value for – United States Exports – plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Exports – actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases – was last updated on July of 2019.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports

US Q1 GDP Growth Confirmed at 3.1%

The US economy grew by an annualized 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019, unrevised from the second estimate issued last month and following a 2.2 percent expansion in the previous three-month period. Upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment were offset by downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and inventory investment and an upward revision to imports. GDP Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.22 percent from 1947 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 16.70 percent in the first quarter of 1950 and a record low of -10 percent in the first quarter of 1958.

The US economy grew by an annualized 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019, unrevised from the second estimate and following a 2.2 percent expansion in the previous three-month period. Nonresidential and residential fixed investment, exports and imports, and state and local government spending were revised higher while personal consumption expenditures and inventory investment came in lower than initially reported.

Positive contributions came from exports (0.65 percentage points), personal consumption expenditures (0.62 percentage points), nonresidential fixed investment (0.61 percentage points), private inventory investment (0.55 percentage points), and state and local government spending (0.48 percentage points). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased, posting a positive contribution of 0.30 percentage points. These contributions were partly offset by a decreasein residential fixed investment (-0.08 percentage points).

State and local government spending surged 4.6 percent during the first quarter, reversing a 1.3 percent contraction in the previous three-month period. In addition, private inventory investment accelerated and exports jumped 5.4 percent (vs 1.8 percent in Q4), boosted by sales of goods (6.0 percent vs 1.2 percent) and services (4.4 percent vs 2.7 percent); while imports dropped 1.9 percent (vs 2.0 percent in Q4) due to lower purchases of goods (-3.3 percent vs 0.5 percent).

These movements were partly offset by a deceleration in PCE (0.9 percent vs 2.5 percent).

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter. The PCE price index increased 0.5 percent, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.2 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 2.25-2.5 percent

The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 2.25-2.5 percent but dropped a promise to be “patient” in adjusting rates and signaled possible rate cuts of as much as half a percentage point later this year. The policymakers left economic projections for growth and unemployment mostly unchanged but the headline inflation was forecasted at just 1.5% for the year, down from the 1.8% projected in March. Interest Rate in the United States averaged 5.67 percent from 1971 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 20 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in December of 2008.

The Fed is “insulated from short-term political pressures”, Chair Jerome H. Powell said in a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, as policymakers face heavy criticism by President Donald Trump for having raised interest rates last year.

Let me share some of the thinking behind this review, which is the first of its nature we have undertaken. The Fed is insulated from short-term political pressures—what is often referred to as our “independence.” Congress chose to insulate the Fed this way because it had seen the damage that often arises when policy bends to short-term political interests. Central banks in major democracies around the world have similar independence.

Let me turn now from the longer-term issues that are the focus of the review to the nearer-term outlook for the economy and for monetary policy. So far this year, the economy has performed reasonably well. Solid fundamentals are supporting continued growth and strong job creation, keeping the unemployment rate near historic lows. Although inflation has been running somewhat below our symmetric 2 percent objective, we have expected it to pick up, supported by solid growth and a strong job market. Along with this favorable picture, we have been mindful of some ongoing crosscurrents, including trade developments and concerns about global growth. When the FOMC met at the start of May, tentative evidence suggested these crosscurrents were moderating, and we saw no strong case for adjusting our policy rate.

Since then, the picture has changed. The crosscurrents have reemerged, with apparent progress on trade turning to greater uncertainty and with incoming data raising renewed concerns about the strength of the global economy. Our contacts in business and agriculture report heightened concerns over trade developments. These concerns may have contributed to the drop in business confidence in some recent surveys and may be starting to show through to incoming data. For example, the limited available evidence we have suggests that investment by businesses has slowed from the pace earlier in the year.

Against the backdrop of heightened uncertainties, the baseline outlook of my FOMC colleagues, like that of many other forecasters, remains favorable, with unemployment remaining near historic lows. Inflation is expected to return to 2 percent over time, but at a somewhat slower pace than we foresaw earlier in the year. However, the risks to this favorable baseline outlook appear to have grown.

Last week, my FOMC colleagues and I held our regular meeting to assess the stance of monetary policy. We did not change the setting for our main policy tool, the target range for the federal funds rate, but we did make significant changes in our policy statement. Since the beginning of the year, we had been taking a patient stance toward assessing the need for any policy change. We now state that the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

The question my colleagues and I are grappling with is whether these uncertainties will continue to weigh on the outlook and thus call for additional policy accommodation. Many FOMC participants judge that the case for somewhat more accommodative policy has strengthened. But we are also mindful that monetary policy should not overreact to any individual data point or short-term swing in sentiment. Doing so would risk adding even more uncertainty to the outlook. We will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate

United States Manufacturing Production

Manufacturing production in the United States rose 0.7 percent year-on-year in April 2019, rebounding from an upwardly revised 0.3 percent fall in the previous month. Manufacturing Production in the United States averaged 3.79 percent from 1920 until 2019, reaching an all-time high of 67.90 percent in July of 1933 and a record low of -39.40 percent in February of 1946.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-production

United States Retail Sales YoY

Retail Sales in the United States increased 3.20 percent in May of 2019 over the same month in the previous year. Retail Sales YoY in the United States averaged 4.37 percent from 1993 until 2019, reaching an all-time high of 11.20 percent in March of 1994 and a record low of -11.50 percent in March of 2009.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales-annual

US Non-Manufacturing Activity Grows Faster in May

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for the United States rose to a three-month high of 56.9 in May 2019 from 55.5 in the previous month and above market expectations of 55.5. Business activity, new orders and employment all grew at a faster pace. Non Manufacturing PMI in the United States is reported by Institute for Supply Management.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for the United States rose to a three-month high of 56.9 in May 2019 from 55.5 in the previous month and above market expectations of 55.5.

Increases were seen in business activity (61.2 vs 59.5 in April), new orders (58.6 vs 58.1), and employment (58.1 vs 53.7), while new export orders growth slowed (55.5 vs 57.0) and imports were flat (50.0 vs 55.0). In addition, supplier deliveries dropped from the previous month (49.5 vs 50.5) and prices rose at softer pace (55.4 vs 55.7).

“According to the NMI, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector continues to experience a slight uptick in business activity, but it is still leveling off overall. Respondents are mostly optimistic about overall business conditions, but concerns remain about tariffs and employment resources.

The 16 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in May — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Educational Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Mining; Health Care & Social Assistance; Other Services; Finance & Insurance; Information; and Retail Trade. The only industry reporting a decrease is Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting.”

The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 52.1 in May 2019 from 52.8 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 53. The latest reading pointed to weakest pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector since October 2016 as production growth eased to the weakest since August 2016 and backlog of orders contracted for the first time since January 2017. Business Confidence in the United States is reported by Institute for Supply Management.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US fell to 52.1 in May 2019 from 52.8 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 53. The latest reading pointed to weakest pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector since October 2016.

The production index dropped 1 point to 51.3 in May, the lowest level since August 2016. In addition, other PMI components declined: the supplier deliveries index was down 2.6 points to 52; and the inventories index fell 2 points to 50.9. Meanwhile, increases were seen in new orders (up 1 point to 52.7), employment (up 1.3 points to 53.7), and prices (up 3.2 points to 53.2).

“Comments from the panel reflect continued expanding business strength, but at soft levels consistent with the early-2016 expansion. Demand expansion continued, with the New Orders Index strengthening, but remaining in the low 50s, the Customers’ Inventories Index remaining at a ‘too low’ level, and the Backlog of Orders Index contracting for the first time since January 2017. Consumption (production and employment) continued to expand, resulting in a combined PMI contribution of 0.3 percentage point. Inputs — expressed as supplier deliveries, inventories and imports — were lower this month, primarily due to inventory softening and supplier’s continuing to deliver faster, resulting in a combined 4.6-percentage point reduction in the Supplier Deliveries and Inventories indexes. Imports contracted for the second straight month. Overall, inputs reflect supply chains’ ability to respond faster and indicate that supply managers are closely watching inventories. Prices remain at a relatively stable level.

“Respondents expressed concern with the escalation in the U.S.-China trade standoff, but overall sentiment remained predominantly positive. The PMI continues to reflect slowing expansion,” says Fiore.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 11 reported growth in May, in the following order: Printing & Related Support Activities; Furniture & Related Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Machinery. The six industries reporting contraction in May — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; and Fabricated Metal Products.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-manufacturing-pmi