United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index in the US rose 2.7 percent year-on-year in March 2019, slowing from a revised 3 percent increase in the previous month and missing market expectations of 2.6 percent. It was the smallest annual gain in house prices since August 2012. Las Vegas recorded the biggest increase in home prices (8.2 percent), followed by Phoenix (6.1 percent) and Tampa (5.3 percent), while the smallest gains were reported in San Diego (1.3 percent), Los Angeles (1.3 percent) and San Francisco (1.4 percent). The national index, covering all nine US census divisions, went up 3.7 percent in March, down from a 3.9 percent rise in the prior month. Case Shiller Home Price Index in the United States averaged 163.37 Index Points from 2000 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 213.83 Index Points in August of 2018 and a record low of 100 Index Points in January of 2000.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/case-shiller-home-price-index

Mrs. May is leaving Downing Street, but not today.

Facing a cabinet rebellion, Theresa May set out Friday morning a timetable for her departure from office.

Standing in front of 10 Downing Street, Mrs. May said it was in the “best interests of the country for a new prime minister” to lead Britain through the Brexit process. She announced plans to step down as the leader of the Conservative Party on June 7, with the process to replace her beginning the following week. She will remain as a lame-duck prime minister until a new leader is chosen, probably by the end of July.

“I feel as certain today as I did three years ago that in a democracy, if you give people a choice you have a duty to implement what they decide. I have done my best to do that,” she added. “I have done everything I can to convince M.P.s to back that deal. Sadly, I have not been able to do so.”

[Read Mrs. May’s entire speech here.]

Mrs. May’s voice cracked as she said she was honored to serve the country as the “second female prime minister, but certainly not the last,” and said the role had been the honor of her life.

The speech followed a meeting with Graham Brady, a powerful leader of backbench Conservative lawmakers.

She will continue as a member of Parliament after stepping down as prime minister, the Press Association news agency has reported.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/24/world/europe/theresa-may-resignation.html

US Housing Starts Rise Above Forecast

Housing starts in the US rose 5.7 percent from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,235 thousand units in April 2019, more than an expected 1,205 thousand and

Following a revised 1.7 percent advance in March.

Single-family homebuilding, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, rose 6.2 percent to a rate of 854 thousand units in April and starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment advanced 4.7 percent to a rate of 381 thousand units. Increases in housing starts were recorded in the Northeast (84.6 percent to 144 thousand) and Midwest (42 percent to 186 thousand), while declines were seen in the South (-5.7 percent to 581 thousand) and West (-5.5 percent to 324 thousand). Starts for March were revised to 1,168 thousand from 1,139 thousand.

Building permits were up 0.6 percent to a rate of 1,296 thousand units in April, while markets had expected a 0.5 percent gain. Permits for the volatile multi-family housing segment increased 8.9 percent to 514 thousand, while single-family authorizations fell 4.2 percent to 782 thousand. Across regions, permits were higher in the West (5.3 percent to 339 thousand) and Midwest (2.2 percent to 188 thousand), but dropped in the Northeast (-4 percent to 120 thousand) and South (-1.2 percent to 649 thousand).

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts

China April Trade Surplus Far Below Estimates

China’s trade surplus fell to USD 13.84 billion in April 2019 from USD 26.21 billion in the same month a year earlier and missing market consensus of a surplus of USD 35.0 billion. Year-on-year, imports advanced 4.0 percent to USD 179.65, while export fell 2.7 percent to USD 193.49 billion. The trade surplus with the US, China’s largest export market, was at USD 21.01 billion in April, little-changed from a surplus USD 20.50 billion in March.

Imports surprisingly rose by 4 percent year-on-year to USD 179.65 billion in April, against market expectations of a 3.6 percent fall and reversing from a 7.6 percent drop in the previous month. This marked the first yearly increase in inbound shipments since November last year. Purchases of crude oil surged 11 percent year-on-year to a record high of 43.73 million tonnes, equal to 10.64 million barrels per day/bpd, and rose by 15 percent from March’s 9.26 million bpd. Also, total natural gas imports went up 12 percent year-on-year to 7.65 million tonnes, and grew by 10.2 percent from March’s 6.94 million tonnes. In addition, inbound shipments of soybeans expanded 10.7 percent from the prior year to 7.64 million tonnes, with buyers delaying cargoes to arrive in April to take advantage of a cut in the value-added tax/VAT on agricultural products effective from 1st April; and soared 55 percent month-over-month from 4.92 million in March. As part of a trade conflict with the US, China slapped a 25 percent tariff on US soybeans last July. The US and Brazil were the two largest suppliers of soybeans to China until the start of the trade row. In contrast, China’s iron ore imports fell to the lowest in 1-1/2 years, as poor weather in Brazil, the country’s second-largest supplier, disrupted shipments; and as some mining production halted their production following recent accident. Inbound shipments of coal went up 13.6 percent to 25.3 million tonnes. Additionally, purchases of unwrought copper decreased 8.4 percent to 405,000 tonnes, but rose 3.6 percent from the prior’s month 391,000 tonnes.

Among China’s biggest trade partners, purchases grew mainly from Japan (1.4 percent), the EU (4.4 percent), Australia (18 percent) and the ASEAN countries (10.4 percent), while contracted from the US (-25.7 percent), South Korea (-2.4 percent), and Taiwan (-6.8 percent).

Exports unexpectedly declined by 2.7 percent to USD 193.49 billion, swinging from a 14.2 percent jump in the previous month and missing market estimates of a 2.3 percent growth. The latest reading on overseas sales reflected weakening global demand as well as renewed trade dispute with the US, at which higher tariffs on USD 200 billion worth of Chinese goods will soon take effect. Sales of steel products fell 2.3 percent to 6.33 million tonnes and were unchanged from the previous month. Additionally, exports of coal declined 2.0 percent to 0.50 million tonnes, and dropped 12.3 percent from March’s 0.57 million tonnes. Meanwhile, sales of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products went up 10.4 percent from a year earlier to 498,000 tonnes in March, but declined 8.8 percent from February’s 546,000 tonnes. Also, exports of rice jumped 112.7 percent to 357,000 tonnes and climbed 84.7 percent from the prior month’s 190,000 tonnes.

Sales declined to the US (-13.2 percent), Japan (-16.4 percent), South Korea (-7.7 percent), and Australia (-13.8 percent), while went up to Taiwan (4.6 percent), the EU (6.2 percent), and the ASEAN countries (0.4 percent).

For the January to April period, the trade surplus with the US was recorded at USD 83.66 billion.

Considering the first four months of the year, China’s trade surplus widened to USD 90.16 billion from USD 70.94 billion in the corresponding period 2018.

In yuan-denominated terms, China’s trade surplus came in at CNY 93.57 billion in April, as exports grew by 3.1 percent while imports expanded at a faster 10.3 percent.

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/balance-of-trade

Fed Holds Rates as Expected, Reaffirms Patience Approach

The Federal Reserve kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 2.25 percent to 2.25 percent during its May meeting, saying that economic activity has been rising at a solid rate and that labour market remains strong.

The Committee also reaffirmed its position to be patient about further policy firming.

FOMC Statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity rose at a solid rate. Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Growth of household spending and business fixed investment slowed in the first quarter. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy have declined and are running below 2 percent. On balance, market-based measures of inflation compensation have remained low in recent months, and survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes. In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate

The US economy grew by an annualized 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019, easily beating market expectations of 2 percent and following a 2.2 percent expansion in the previous three-month period. 

Positive contributions came from personal consumption expenditures (0.82 percentage points), private inventory investment (0.65 percentage points), exports (0.45 percentage points), state and local government spending (0.41 percentage points), and nonresidential fixed investment (0.38 percentage points). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased, posting a positive contribution of 0.58 percentage points. These contributions were partly offset by a decrease in residential investment (-0.11 percentage points).

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) advanced 1.2 percent in the first quarter, easing from a 2.5 percent increase in the previous period, mainly due to a fall in consumption of goods (-0.7 percent vs 2.6 percent in Q4), in particular durable goods (-5.3 percent vs 3.6 percent). By contrast, services consumption growth remained solid (2 percent vs 2.4 percent).

Exports jumped 3.7 percent, after a 1.8 percent rise in Q4, boosted by sales of both goods (4.7 percent vs 1.2 percent) and services (1.8 percent vs 2.7 percent). On the other hand, imports declined 3.7 percent, the largest drop since the fourth quarter of 2012, following a 2 percent climb in Q4. Purchases of goods plunged 4.4 percent (vs 0.5 percent in Q4) and imports of services fell 0.8 percent (vs 8.6 percent in Q4).

State and local spending surged 3.9 percent, the most since the first quarter of 2016, reversing a 1.3 percent drop in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Nonresidential fixed investment increased 2.7 percent, compared to a 5.4 percent advance in the previous three-month period. Investment in intellectual property products led the gains (8.6 percent vs 10.7 percent), followed by equipment (0.2 percent vs 6.6 percent). By contrast, investment in structures fell for the third straight quarter (-0.8 percent vs -3.9 percent).

Meanwhile, residential investment shrank for the fifth straight period (-2.8 percent vs -4.7 percent), the first such instance since the financial crisis.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

US Durable Goods Orders Rise the Most in 7 Months

New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose 2.7 percent from a month earlier in March 2019, rebounding from a downwardly revised 1.1 percent fall in February and above market expectations of a 0.8 percent gain. It is the biggest increase since August last year, led by transportation equipment.

Orders for transport equipment jumped 7.0 percent in March (percent vs -2.9 percent in February), driven by civilian aircraft (31.2 percent vs -25.4 percent), aircraft and parts (17.7 percent vs 4.9 percent) and motor vehicles and parts (2.1 percent vs a flat reading). Demand also increased for machinery (0.3 percent vs -0.7 percent) and computers and electronic products (2.2 percent vs 0.3 percent). Meanwhile, demand for electrical equipment, appliances, and components slowed (0.1 percent vs 1.1 percent), namely primary metals (-0.2 percent vs 0.7 percent).

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, advanced 1.3 percent, after increasing 0.1 percent in February, boosted by a jump in demand for computers and electronic products. It was the largest increase since July last year.

Excluding transportation, new orders edged up 0.4 percent (vs -0.2 percent in February). Excluding defense, new orders rose 2.3 percent (vs -1.7 percent in February).

Shipments of manufactured durable goods in March, up four of the last five months, increased $0.9 billion or 0.3 percent to $259.6 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent February increase. Transportation equipment, up following two consecutive monthly decreases, drove the increase, $1.0 billion or 1.1 percent to $90.7

billion.

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in March, up two of the last three months, increased $3.2 billion or 0.3 percent to $1,181.9 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent February decrease. Transportation equipment, also up two of the last three months, led the increase, $3.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $811.9 billion.

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in March, up twenty-six of the last twenty-seven months, increased $1.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $420.5 billion. This followed a 0.4 percent February increase. Machinery, up fifteen of the last sixteen months, led the increase, $0.7 billion or 1.0 percent to $71.6 billion.

Non-defense new orders for capital goods in March increased $4.9 billion or 6.5 percent to $80.5 billion. Shipments increased less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged to $79.0 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $708.2 billion. Inventories increased $1.3 billion or 0.7 percent to $184.9 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in March increased $1.0 billion or 7.4 percent to $13.9 billion. Shipments increased $0.1 billion or 1.0 percent to $12.6 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.4 billion or 0.9 percent to $158.1 billion. Inventories increased $0.2 billion or 0.8 percent to $23.1 billion.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders

Fed Sees Rates Unchanged in 2019

Federal Reserve policymakers expect rates to remain at current levels this year, compared to December’s projection of two hikes. The FOMC also pledged to start slowing the shrinking of its balance sheet in May and stop the drawdown altogether at the end of September. The economic-growth projections were also lowered for this year by a full percentage point to 2.1 percent. Interest Rate in the United States averaged 5.69 percent from 1971 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 20 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in December of 2008.

Fed Sees Rates Unchanged in 2019

The Federal Reserve held the target range for the federal funds rate at 2.25-2.5 percent during its March meeting and lowered its forecast for US economic growth, as widely expected. Fed officials now expect rates to remain at current levels at least until the end of the year, compared to December’s projection of two rate hikes.

Policymakers lowered its 2019 growth forecast to 2.1 percent, compared to 2.3 percent previously estimated; and that for 2020 was also cut to 1.9 percent, compared to 2 percent. The 2021 growth forecast remained unchanged at 1.8 percent. PCE inflation outlook was also revised lower to 1.8 percent in 2019 (vs 1.9 percent in December projection) while inflation for 2020 and 2021 is seen at 2 percent (vs 2.1 percent in December projection). Meanwhile, unemployment is expected to average 3.7 percent in 2019 (vs 3.5 percent in December projection), 3.8 percent in 2020 (vs 3.6 percent) and 3.9 percent in 2021 (vs 3.8 percent).

FOMCStatement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January indicates that the labor market remains strong but that growth of economic activity has slowed from its solid rate in the fourth quarter. Payroll employment was little changed in February, but job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Recent indicators point to slower growth of household spending and business fixed investment in the first quarter. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation has declined, largely as a result of lower energy prices; inflation for items other than food and energy remains near 2 percent. On balance, market-based measures of inflation compensation have remained low in recent months, and survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes. In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate

US Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Rise

New orders for US manufactured durable goods rose 0.4 percent from a month earlier in January of 2019, following an upwardly revised 1.3 percent advance in December and beating market expectations of a 0.5 percent drop. Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, jumped 1.2 percent and drove the increase. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, went up 0.8 percent, the highest gain since July and rebounding from a 0.9 percent fall in December. Durable Goods Orders in the United States averaged 0.33 percent from 1992 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.50 percent in July of 2014 and a record low of -19 percent in August of 2014.

US Durable Goods Orders Unexpectedly Rise

New orders for US manufactured durable goods increased 0.4 percent from a month earlier in January of 2019, following an upwardly revised 1.3 percent advance in December and beating market expectations of a 0.5 percent drop. Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, went up 0.8 percent, the highest gain since July and rebounding from a 0.9 percent fall in December.

Transportation equipment, up five of the last six months, drove the increase, $1.0 billion or 1.2 percent to $90.9 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.1 percent, after an upwardly revised 0.3 percent rise in December and compared to forecasts of a 0.1 percent gain. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.7 percent, following an upwardly revised 2.2 percent rise in the previous month.

Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in January, up following three consecutive monthly decreases, increased $1.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $1,181.9 billion.  This followed a 0.1 percent December decrease. Transportation equipment, also up following three consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $0.9 billion or 0.1 percent to $811.6 billion.

Inventories of manufactured durable goods in January, up twenty-four of the last twenty-five months, increased $1.7 billion or 0.4 percent to $417.0 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent December increase. Transportation equipment, up four of the last five months, led the increase, $1.2 billion or 0.9 percent to $132.6 billion.

Nondefense new orders for capital goods in January increased $2.0 billion or 2.5 percent to $80.3 billion. Shipments decreased $1.3 billion or 1.6 percent to $78.4 billion. Unfilled orders increased $1.9 billion or 0.3 percent to $711.0 billion. Inventories increased $0.9 billion or 0.5 percent to $182.8 billion. Defense new orders for capital goods in January decreased $0.3 billion or 2.3 percent to $12.5 billion. Shipments increased $0.4 billion or 3.4 percent to $13.0 billion.  Unfilled orders decreased $0.5 billion or 0.3 percent to $156.0 billion. Inventories increased $0.4 billion or 1.6 percent to $23.0 billion.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders

Core Inflation

US core consumer prices, excluding volatile items such as food and energy, increased 2.1 percent from a year earlier in February 2019, easing from a 2.2 percent gain in the previous month and slightly below market expectations of a 2.2 percent rise. It is the smallest annual increase in core consumer prices since October. Core Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.62 percent from 1957 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 13.60 percent in June of 1980 and a record low of 0 percent in May of 1957.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/core-inflation-rate

Standard Inflation

Consumer prices in the United States increased 1.5 percent year-on-year in February of 2019, following a 1.6 percent rise in January and below market expectations of 1.6 percent. It is the lowest inflation rate since September of 2016, mainly due to a fall in cost of gasoline and clothing while prices of electricity stalled. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.2 percent after a flat reading in January, matching forecasts. It is the first monthly rise in the CPI, due to prices of food, gasoline and rents. Inflation Rate in the United States averaged 3.26 percent from 1914 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.70 percent in June of 1920 and a record low of -15.80 percent in June of 1921.

United States Inflation Rate Lowest since 2016

Consumer prices in the United States increased 1.5 percent year-on-year in February of 2019, following a 1.6 percent rise in January and below market expectations of 1.6 percent. It is the lowest inflation rate since September of 2016, mainly due to a fall in cost of gasoline and clothing while prices of electricity stalled. On a monthly basis, consumer prices went up 0.2 percent after a flat reading in January, matching forecasts. It is the first monthly rise in the CPI, due to prices of food, gasoline and rents.

Year-on-year, prices fell for gasoline (-9.1 pecent compared to -10.1 percent in January); fuel oil (-2.4 percent compared to -8.1 percent); medical care commodities (-1.1 percent compared to -0.3 percent); apparel (-0.8 percent compared to +0.1 percent) and utility piped gas service (-2.6 percent compared to +4.3 percent). Also, prices slowed for transportation services (1.1 percent compared to 2 percent); used cars and trucks (1.1 percent compared to 1.6 percent); and new vehicles (0.3 percent compared to 0 percent) and stalled for electricity (0 percent compared to 1.3 percent). On the other hand, inflation increased for shelter (3.4 percent compared to 3.2 percent) and food (2 percent compared to 1.6 percent) and was flat for medical care services (2.4 percent, the same as in January).

Excluding food and energy, core inflation rate edged down to 2.1 percent from 2.2 percent in January, below forecasts of 2.2 percent.

Month-over-month, the indexes for shelter and food increased, and the gasoline index rose after recent declines to result in the seasonally adjusted all items increase. The food index rose 0.4 percent, its largest monthly increase since May 2014, as both the food at home and food away from home indexes increased. The gasoline index rose 1.5 percent in February, following three consecutive monthly declines, resulting in the energy index rising 0.4 percent despite declines in the electricity and natural gas indexes.

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in February after rising 0.2 percent in January, matching market expectations. Along with the shelter index, the indexes or personal care, apparel, and education all increased. The indexes for recreation, medical care, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles all declined in February.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi